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Economists at Goldman Sachs have raised their assessment of the odds the U.S. will experience a recession to 45% from 35% following President Donald Trump's tariffs announcement April 2.

U.S. consumer confidence continued its sharp 2025 decline as Americans’ views about their financial futures slumped to a 12-year low, driven by rising anxiety over tariffs and inflation.

“People are looking at the prices of things and freaking out,” Bob Costello said Feb. 20 at the 2025 Recruitment & Retention Conference in Nashville.

“Trucking is now in the longest and deepest freight down cycle since the 2007 global financial crisis,” said C.H. Robinson's Michael Castagnetto. ATA data shows tonnage climbing slowly.

Transportation companies that serve as a bellwether for the American economy sent up a smoke signal last week.

A strong majority of business economists now say odds of the U.S. entering a recession in the next 12 months are 50% or less, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey.

“Diesel demand can act as a leading indicator for broader growth as an early sign that spending by households is waning,” said one expert.

SAN DIEGO — American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello said Oct. 25 the trucking industry should be fairly well insulated from a potential recession in 2023.

The U.S. economy fell into a recession in February, a group of economists with the National Bureau of Economic Research said June 8, and some within the trucking industry are not predicting a rapid return to pre-pandemic levels.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy entered a recession in February as the coronavirus struck the nation, a group of economists declared June 8.