US Oil Output Expected to Flatline Until 2025
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The U.S. sees oil production flatlining for most of this year before reaching a new record in early 2025. That would ease concerns about a supply glut that has weighed on prices.
Shut-ins from frigid weather caused to 12.6 million barrels a day in January from a record 13.3 million-barrel clip in December, the said in a forecast Feb. 6. Production will rebound to just shy of record levels this month before decreasing slightly for the rest of the year, and won’t reach a new high until next February, the agency said.
Lower output from the U.S. at a time when and its allies are reining in their own exports could support global crude prices, which are down more than 20% from last year’s highs. The EIA continues to expect a global supply deficit of about 120,000 barrels a day in 2024.
But the agency’s forecast stands in contrast to that of the , which sees continued supply growth from the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Guyana contributing to a global surplus of 500,000 barrels a day.
To be sure, the pace of U.S. production growth in 2023 surprised some forecasters, with record supplies from the Americas dampening the impact of OPEC+ cuts later in the year.
The EIA lowered its forecast for U.S. oil demand this year to 20.39 million barrels a day, down from a previous estimate of 20.45 million barrels a day. The forecast for U.S. jet fuel demand was revised lower by about 1.8% to 1.68 million barrels a day.
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