Trucking’s Energy Transition Enters ‘Peak Uncertainty’
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ANAHEIM, Calif. — The transportation industry’s transition toward low- and zero-emission vehicles and alternative fuels has entered a period of “peak uncertainty” as the U.S. regulatory landscape shifts rapidly.
The , prepared by environmental consulting firm TRC, noted that the second Trump administration’s actions to roll back vehicle emissions regulations and potentially cut federal funding for clean transportation projects have clouded the outlook for industry adoption.
“There is a lot of uncertainty around what the current administration will do, and how states and the industry will respond,” said Nate Springer, vice president of market development for TRC’s clean transportation solutions team.
Although the full effects of federal policy changes remain unclear, the transportation industry’s deployment of low- and zero-emission vehicles and its usage of renewable fuels continued to grow in 2024, according to the annual report.
“Overall, clean vehicle technology expanded since we last released our market brief, but there may be more questions and uncertainty now than ever for fleet owners,” Springer said.
Federal funding to support cleaner transportation — especially battery-electric vehicles and infrastructure for EV charging and hydrogen fueling — increased dramatically in recent years with the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, but moving forward, TRC anticipates a pause or complete elimination of future awards under those programs, Springer said.
However, TRC still estimates that more than $13.5 billion in annual funding for clean vehicles and infrastructure remains available from states, municipalities, utilities and local air districts.
At the state level, California’s Air Resources Board pulled back its Advanced Clean Fleets rule in January, but other mandates and emission regulations remain in place, including the Advanced Clean Trucks rule adopted by California and nearly a dozen other states to establish zero-emission sales requirements for vehicle manufacturers.
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The State of Sustainable Fleets report, released during the 2025 Advanced Clean Transportation Expo, also provides updates on cleaner power sources for commercial vehicles, from battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks to renewable fuels.
The report cited further increases in both the supply and demand of renewable diesel, a drop-in fuel that fleets can use in existing diesel engines. Renewable diesel production increased 28% in 2024, according to the report.
The natural gas truck market received a boost last year with the rollout of Cummins’ X15N engine, which provides a natural gas option for tough duty cycles that require the additional power of a 15-liter engine.
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TRC also noted that access to renewable natural gas has expanded. The number of natural gas fueling stations offering RNG increased by 63% last year, the report found.
The market brief also noted that the development of hydrogen fuel cell trucks reached new milestones but also faced new challenges throughout 2024, especially with Nikola Corp.’s bankruptcy, Hyzon’s shutdown and questions about the future of federal funding for hydrogen hubs.
“This is an industry among all of those covered in State of Sustainable Fleets that faces the greatest risk of pause or dramatic slowdown in the near future,” Springer said. “It is an industry that is at an earlier stage of development than all others and would benefit most from federal [research and development] and coordination.”
Representatives from several sponsors of the report shared their own perspectives on the state of clean fleet technologies.
“We do believe that the future of energy is lower carbon and we believe it’s going to take all forms of energy … to meet this growing global energy demand,” said Todd Ellis, vice president of sales and marketing at Chevron Renewable Energy Group.
Keith Brandis, vice president of partnerships and strategic solutions at Volvo Trucks North America, said the truck maker continues to pursue its three-pillar strategy for decarbonization: battery-electric, hydrogen fuel and internal combustion engines running on low-carbon fuels.
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“In our business, R&D activities and investments can’t change based on today’s news cycle,” Brandis said. “We have to look over the horizon. We have to be prepared for what’s to come.”
Paul Rosa, senior vice president of market procurement and fleet planning at Penske, commended truck manufacturers’ investments in developing and introducing battery-electric trucks, but also acknowledged that the total cost of ownership for those vehicles doesn’t work today for most trucking applications.
Nonetheless, battery electric “isn’t going away — and it shouldn’t go away,” he added.
He, too, envisions a role for multiple powertrain technologies on trucking’s road to decarbonization.
“It’s a very interesting time that we’re in,” Rosa said. “Now I think there’s going to be opportunity for both sides of that equation, for both rails — zero-emission vehicles and traditional [internal combustion engines] — to continue to evolve to meet the goals that we’re trying to accomplish with reducing the carbon footprint.”
